Fitness rankings 1995-2015
The country Fitness is a measure of the country intangible capabilities and it has been proved to be a crucial dimension to forecast growth potential. With non-linear techniques of heterogeneous dynamics, similar to weather forecasting, we assess the expectation for the future growth of countries. Advancements based on similar techniques have been also tested by the World Bank Group and they are now used extensively by our group to make forecasting of growth in the medium-long period, 5 to 10 years.
Introduction of the Fitness and Complexity algorithm:
A. Tacchella, M. Cristelli, G. Caldarelli, A. Gabrielli, L. Pietronero, A New Metrics for Countries’ Fitness and Products’ Complexity, Nature Scientific Reports 2, 723 (2012)
Comparison with ECI:
M. Cristelli, A. Gabrielli, A. Tacchella, G. Caldarelli, L. Pietronero, Measuring the Intangibles: a Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products PLoS ONE 8(8): e70726. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.
E Pugliese, A Zaccaria, L Pietronero, On the convergence of the Fitness-Complexity Algorithm, The European Physical Journal Special Topics 225 (10), 1893-1911 (2016)
E Pugliese, GL Chiarotti, A Zaccaria, L Pietronero, Complex economies have a lateral escape from the poverty trap, PloS one 12 (1), e0168540 (2017)
M. Cristelli, A. Tacchella, L. Pietronero, The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity PLoS ONE 10(2): e0117174. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117174 (2015)
M Cristelli, A Tacchella, M Cader; K Roster, L Pietronero, On the predictability of growth. Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 8117. Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. (2017)